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Forecasting the future: From tightening budgets to the rise of Gen AI

 

We might not have a crystal ball, but we do have a very good idea of where the worlds of manufacturing and product development are heading in the months and years ahead. 

The pace of change – and the regulatory, market and stakeholder demands that accompany it – has, and will continue to be, rapid. For all of these predictions it is not a case of ‘if’, but ‘when’. 

For businesses looking to capitalize on this momentum, the time is now. Being ahead of the curve is much easier than catching up. 

Below, we offer some insights of our own alongside contributions from a couple of our closest collaborators.  

Predictions from Makersite: 

Supply chain disruptions will subside

Contrary to the fearmongering that we’ve seen in the news lately, we believe that disruptions will continue to subside in 2024, bringing immense relief to manufacturers and customers. Most of the supply chains have recovered from pandemic era disruptions, both in terms of production and logistics. While recent challenges in the Red Sea have caused concern, logistics have largely adapted with marginal increases in delivery times and costs thanks to the overcapacity that was created after the pandemic. 

Generative AI will not take our jobs, yet

This topic isn’t quite our wheelhouse, but as there is so much hype about GenAI we felt we had to say something. While a quarter of CEO’s anticipate significant AI-related job losses this year (Source: PwC, Global CEO Survey), we feel this is massively overblown. The truth is that these things take time in most functions where its applications are still immature. 

Companies will remain carbon neutral , experimenting with the use of generative AI to create marketing content, summarize customer service calls, unlock domain-specific knowledge via chatbots and generate workflows and apps. Jobs in supply chains are not going anywhere. In fact, it’s never been cooler to be in this space.

It’s also worth keeping a close eye on how some of our biggest and most innovative companies are embracing the possibilities of generative AI. Look to Autodesk and PTC’s use of generative design – “a form of AI that produces myriad solutions to defined engineering problems” – and its ability to boost innovation, reduce waste, and accelerate time-to-market. Both showcase a potential future where engineers and AI work in tandem to create something demonstrably better. As PTC puts it: “[With generative AI] engineers can interact with the technology to create superior designs and drive product innovation more quickly.”

Budgets will continue to tighten

While there is a lot more optimism amongst business leaders (PwC Global CEO Survey) and consumers (Source: Ipsos, Global Advisor Predictions 2024) than in 2023, Makersite CEO Neil D’Souza predicts that for the most part, 2024 will be a year when companies have to “do even more with even less.” There is still a lot of ambiguity in the EU,” he notes.

“The economy is growing in the US, but in the EU it’s stagnating. Across manufacturing, budgets are still getting cut and I don’t think that’s going to change any time soon.” Unfortunately, most of the primary levers of efficiency have been exhausted, so companies will need to make investments to drive the next level of savings.  

The “S” in ESG will become more important

When it comes to an increasing onus on rules, regulations and political optics, Sophie Kieselbach, Makersite’s Experts Team Lead, believes that the ‘S’ in ‘ESG’ is going to increase in prominence. “Driven by the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), 2024 will be the year when social indicators really begin to permeate business decisions along the supply chain. Businesses will need to start implementing more concrete methodologies that allow them to track human rights issues such as slavery or child labour or gender inequality more accurately.”  

Future Forecasting Quote

Predictions from friends of Makersite: 

We also reached out to a few close friends of Makersite for their input on what the future holds. Here are their predictions:

Leaders in sustainability will finally get to shine

Capgemini’s Lukas Birn, VP of Sustainability believes that as we navigate through 2024, the disparity between sustainability leaders and laggards will become starkly evident. Those lagging behind will find themselves grappling with increasingly stringent legislation designed to curtail unsustainable practices.

In contrast, sustainability frontrunners will intensify their investment in innovative products and services that bolster their commitment to a Net Zero future. With the likelihood of an economic downturn, there will be a heightened emphasis on cost-efficiency and the maximization of impact. Budget constraints will prompt a more judicious allocation of resources, ensuring that only the most effective sustainability initiatives are pursued.  

Customers and regulators will amplify calls for transparency

67% of chief supply chain officers now oversee environmental and social sustainability KPIs, with many setting ambitious targets for carbon neutrality within five to 10 years. To achieve green and circular supply chains, companies are building ecosystems that extend beyond their internal operations and Tier 1 suppliers, driving change across the entire value chain. This will require a greater level and quality of transparency internally – to drive better decision making – but also externally, due to regulations

As Microsoft’s Kelly Stumbaugh, Director Devices, Ecodesign, Ecolabels, and Carbon Emissions, says: “Something that is top of mind for me is growing demand for transparency around sustainability metrics, especially GHG emissions and circularity (at least for my industry, electronics). To accomplish this in an ethical manner, companies will need to continue to increase rigor around how these metrics are calculated and the input data that they are collecting, and to include these details and explanations of methodology along with the metrics themselves. Regulations and initiatives in Europe such as SPI, CSRD, and CBAM will drive much of this, but so will customer demand.” 

Digging deep: Why supply chain resilience matters

The sum of all parts

Where are you reading this post? On your phone perhaps. Maybe at your computer. Wherever you are and whatever you’re doing, take a moment to think about the device you’re using. It’ll be made from numerous components, which in turn are constructed from numerous materials sourced – in all likelihood – from all over the world.

We live in a time of ease and availability. But what happens when a material we rely on to build something useful to us is, for whatever reason, no longer readily or easily available? Are you able to source an alternative, and are you able to do it promptly enough to ensure that all the other steps in the production process aren’t impacted?

When it comes to creating a complicated product, it’s unlikely that a company is going to know everything about every component and every material that sits within it. They’ll likely know – and have excess stock of – key components, but what about something deep down the supply chain?

However, without full oversight, one missing element can grind the whole process to a halt. Whether through restrictions, regulations, or shortage in supply, not being aware of material availability represents a huge risk to your business. That’s why supply chain resilience is vital. 

Supply chain resiliency is a term that refers to the need for supply chains to be malleable and adaptable, where oversight and planning means that a business is prepared for unexpected events and disruptions within its supply chain to the extent that alternative options are readily available and operational continuity is assured. Or, in the most basic terms, it’s about having the right contingencies in place at the right time.


Looking beyond logistics

In order to make sure that your supply chain is as resilient as possible, deep-tier transparency is key. When most businesses speak about conducting a supply chain analysis, they’re really just talking about logistics. When they talk about automation in procurement, they’re mostly referring to source-to-pay tools. In reality, it’s necessary to take that analysis to a much more granular level. 

It’s estimated that some 90% of value may sit in the upstream supply chain, and yet many businesses don’t even have information – whether that’s data files, transactional data, detail on environmental impact or various other factors – about their tier 1 suppliers. Furthermore, the majority of risk and non-compliance issues occur with suppliers in tier 2 and below, but 65% of companies have no visibility at this level. Why? The reasons are simple: outdated systems, incomplete or scattered data, supply chain complexity and a deliberate opaqueness from suppliers when it comes to revealing ‘secret’ or sensitive operational details. To stay competitive, manufacturing enterprises need to fully understand the risk in the deeper tiers of their product supply chains. The companies that succeed not only create demand but execute on delivery. 

Supply chain analysis needs to encompass everything from raw material extraction to the end-of-life of the products a company makes and sells. By building a complete picture of their supply chain, a business will find itself not only able to understand their lower tier suppliers’ sourcing, regulatory and sustainability implications but to deliver their own results faster and to operate in a more cost-effective manner. 

 

Solving the issue 

We’ve established that a more resilient supply chain not only drives value but also delivers efficiencies likely to have a major impact on how your business functions. But diving deep into a supply chain is a Herculean task, even for the most advanced teams. Meaningful change is only possible through casting off existing, outdated processes within your organization.  

In order to succeed, collaboration and synergy are essential. Efficient supply chain management and reporting is easily scuppered by a siloed approach, where data scattered across various sources results in slow and costly manual efforts to tie information together.  

Seeking out an automated approach to Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) is one solution. Doing so would enable organisations to not only consolidate and enrich their data, but to perform comprehensive reporting and analysis and make data-driven decisions that will help to minimise risk. 

Now is the time to make dynamic changes at a functional level. The pay-off? Accurate, real-time information through the implementation of a harmonised master data repository. An automated approach – augmented by AI – will allow real-time scenario analyses, reducing friction between departments and helping teams to arrive at the right solution faster. 

 

Gaining the advantage 

With increased oversight and understanding of earlier production phases, a company is positioning itself to act both more promptly and more effectively in the event of a supply crisis. Identifying issues and alternative solutions in advance offers a crucial advantage over competitors who are not doing the same, allowing your business to optimise your supply chain for cost, environment, compliance and a variety of other factors. 

Businesses, at a minimum, should seek to understand exactly what components their products are made from – to have an understanding not only of the raw materials, but also of where the potential risks and shortages in terms of material availability might lie. Maintaining a strong relationship with suppliers is also crucial, as is as a willingness to monitor and act upon events happening in the wider world – from politics to conflict to emerging regulation. Being ready for supply chain disruption is half the battle. 

In a highly competitive business landscape, it’s the fine margins that make a difference.